Analyst: Android tablet horde to overtake iPad by 2016

According to analyst Informa Telecoms & Media, Android’s low-price policy will eventually help it overhaul iPad in the hotly contested new tablet space, but it’s going to take until the year 2016 to do so. And the victory will come about thanks to Android heaping up the affordable tablet options.

The turnabout will bring Apple’s iPad down from its current 75% domination of the tablet market to a more equal 39%, with Android tabs taking 38%. It’s good to share, Apple. Here’s a snippet of the release:

“We expect Apple to retain its leading market share until 2015 but only just. From 2013, as cheaper and more advanced Android tablets enter the market, we forecast that sales will pick up considerably, eventually surpassing iPad sales in 2016″

android tablet ipad market share

We’ll be launching the Europad in Q3 of 2013. Here’s the full text of IT&M’s findings. Link via Mob-Ent.

Android Tablets to close the gap on iPad in 2015

Tablet market to grow to over 230 million in 2015 from under 20 million in 2010

According to the latest forecasts from Informa Telecoms & Media, Android tablet sales will be neck and neck with the iPad in 2015 with 87 million and 90 million unit sales, respectively. Although Apple has dominated this space since the launch of the iPad in 2010, this is set to change with the introduction of low-cost Android tablets, the wider launch of Android 3.0 (Honeycomb) and the possibility of other major brands such as Amazon launching tablets on the OS.


“We have seen a huge explosion in the tablet market in recent years, driven primarily by the iPad, and we estimate that the market will go from strength to strength, growing from under 20 million tablets sold in 2010, to over 230 million in 2015,” comments David McQueen, principal analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media. “We expect Apple to retain its leading market share until 2015 but only just. From 2013, as cheaper and more advanced Android tablets enter the market, we forecast that sales will pick up considerably, eventually surpassing iPad sales in 2016.”

Apple currently has 75% of the market but this will drop to just 39% in 2015. Meanwhile Android will see a huge increase in its market share, as the devices and the ecosystem around the platform improve. By 2015, it will have 38% market share, putting it on a par with the iPad.

“Three factors have proven to be decisive in the success and failure of tablets: brand; access to distribution channels; and product quality, including the application environment offered. At the moment, the iPad leads in all three areas but Apple’s edge is likely to wane as the quality of the competing products and application environments improves,” adds McQueen.

It is anticipated that, once Windows 8.0 is launched, there will be a variety of tablets available in the market based on Intel and ARM architecture. These are most likely to include a Nokia device as well as a number from the traditional PC vendors.

RIM’s PlayBook is expected to show only modest growth early on following its launch as some mobile operators have shown to be reticent to carry the device as they are struggling with the business model owing to it initially being Wi-Fi only. However, volumes will be buoyed by the inclusion of Android apps on the device and the introduction of cellular connectivity (HSPA+ and LTE versions are expected before end-2011).

“Most mobile operators are expected to focus on supporting iOS and Android tablets in line with demand, and their current indifferent support for Windows, BlackBerry OS (QnX), WebOS and MeeGo tablets will prove decisive in shaping consumers’ purchasing decisions in the short term. However, it is those devices that can also dominate the consumer-electronics sector and online retail channels as well as nurture their current partnerships with the mobile operators that will win out,” concludes McQueen.

6 ResponsesLeave one →

  1. MarkG

     /  July 27, 2011

    Didn’t these same “experts” also think it would take 5 years for Android to overtake Apple in the smartphone arena? when they did it in 2…..

    Seems like you can buy an industry expert to say anything you want these days, including such ridiculus things as: http://www.pcadvisor.co.uk/news/mobile-phone/3267551/windows-phone-to-overtake-iphone-by-2015/

    If you print it, they will come mentality it seems.. Unfortunatly large parts of America it actually works like this, the products with the most money spent on marketing win out, rather than the BEST products.

    Reply
    • Calling cards

       /  July 27, 2011

      This tablet market is becoming very hotly contested nowadays, i dont think any investor will go into this market now without considering this two giant threats. Incredible

      Reply
  2. tafkawac

     /  July 27, 2011

    Yeah, I could come out with bull like this.
    Market leader has share diluted by competition. Well done Mr Analyst.
    What would make this interesting would be if a single manufacturer overtook Apple.

    Reply
  1. Analýza: tablety s Androidem překonají iPad v roce 2016 | Androidmarket.cz

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